Air pollution

2004 press releases

Up to 100,000 deaths from air pollution

As the weather hots up across Britain this weekend, the Liberal Democrats are warning of the increasing risk of air pollution due to rising levels of ozone in the summer air.

New figures released today reveal that ozone, a major air pollutant, is exceeding dangerous levels and is expected to result in an additional 490 deaths per year if current trends continue.

Last year's summer heatwave led to a dramatic increase in ozone pollution, causing an estimated additional 600 deaths. Analysis of official figures reveals that this was not a freak occurrence.

Average ozone levels in urban areas: UP 32% since 1997
Levels of ozone in the worst urban area: 45% higher than the average areas
By 2065, a 'High' risk to health could be happening 'on average' - while on some days ozone concentration could far exceed these already dangerous levels
At this rate of increase, ozone pollution could kill an additional 490 people in cities year on year - over 100,000 additional deaths over the next 20 years.

Liberal Democrat Shadow Environment Secretary, Norman Baker MP,

"These figures are a stark illustration the government's failure to take air pollution and climate change seriously. This is not something that will happen in the distant future, it is already having terrible effects on individual health.

"The spate of unusually hot summers is taking its toll on air quality. If global warming and the rise in vehicle emissions are allowed to continue unchallenged, the situation will only get worse.

"Urgent action is needed to reduce the causes of ozone pollution and to safeguard people's health with sustainable transport and energy policies.

"There is also deeply worrying evidence that air pollution produced by American vehicles is being blown across to Britain. The Government has a duty to put pressure on the US to review its environmental policies and work towards global solutions."

Notes to editors

1. Ozone Emissions 1997-2003 (from Official Government Statistics)

Average, minimum and maximum of annual mean ozone concentrations measured in micrograms per metre cubed by Defra's urban monitors	Average	Minimum	Maximum
10.0pt;color:black">1997	31	19	46
1998	34	12	53
1999	38	13	55
2000	36	13	54
2001	36	14	50
2002	37	15	58
2003	40	16	58 [45% higher than average]
Change 1997-2003	+32%

Source: Parliamentary Answer 5 Jul 2004 : Column 442W [PQ: 179441]

2. Projections of increases in maximum annual mean concentration of ozone in urban areas and impact on health 2003-2065 as calculated by the Liberal Democrats

Year	Projected Maximum annual mean (micrograms per metre cubed)	Air Pollution Category	Health impact of air pollution at that level of pollution
2003	58	Low	Effects unlikely to be noticed even by those who are sensitive to air pollution.
2009	70	Low
2024	100	Moderate	Sensitive people may notice mild effects but these are unlikely to need action.
2065	182	High	Sensitive people may notice significant effects and may need to take action.

Source: (1) Projection for future years maximum annual mean calculated using incremental annual increase in maximum ozone levels of 2 µg/m-3 per year between 1997 and 2003 (based on Parliamentary Answer of 5^th June 2004: 179441]; (2) Source of information on air pollution category and health impacts taken from the National Air Quality Archive [http://www.airquality.co.uk/archive/standards.php#band]

By 2024 the projected maximum annual mean of ozone will be 100 µg/m3. This means that at this site half the days of the year will be below this level, and half above. The Government's 's air quality objective states that they should not do so more than ten days per year.

3. Estimated number of additional deaths in future years - as calculated by the Liberal Democrats

Year	Projected Average annual mean ozone levels (micrograms per metre cubed)	Estimated Additional Deaths that Year	Estimated Cumulative Additional Deaths
2003	40	Baseline
2004	41.5	491	491
2005	43	982	1473
2006	44.5	1473	2946
2007	46	1964	4910
2008	47.5	2455	7365
2009	49	2946	10310
2010	50.5	3437	13747
2011	52	3928	17675
2012	53.5	4419	22094
2013	55	4910	27004
2014	56.5	5401	32404
2015	58	5892	38296
2016	59.5	6383	44679
2017	61	6874	51552
2018	62.5	7365	58917
2019	64	7856	66772
2020	65.5	8347	75119
2021	67	8838	83956
2022	68.5	9328	93285
2023	70	9819	103104
2024	71.5	10310	113415
2025	73	10801	124216

The projection of additional deaths from ozone pollution in urban areas every year calculated using the he Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP 1998) which states that an additional 6.14 deaths per 100,000 per year per 10 µg/m-3.

The Office of National Statistics estimates the total population (2002) at 59,231,900, with 90% of these living in urban areas (Office of National Statistics) - a population of 53,308,710. Assuming this remains constant this will mean an additional 3273 deaths per year for an increase in average ozone levels of 10micrograms per metre cubed - or an additional 327 deaths for a 1microgram per metre cubed increase. This means each year there will be a cumulative additional 491 deaths from ozone assuming current trends.

4. The Government's Air Quality Objective: Ozone is not to exceed a running 8 hour mean of 100 µg/m3 in a given area more than 10 times per year, to be implemented by 31 December 2005.

5. The North Atlantic study of the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors project:

The British phase of the project headed by Dr Alistair Lewis from the University of York is assessing how air pollution originating in the US travels across the Atlantic to Britain. The British team began experiments on July 12^th and is measuring levels of ozone in the Atlantic air stream in the Azores until August 4^th. A description of the project is available at:

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~chem89/ITOPimplementation%20plan_2_..pdf

Norman Baker MP Member of Parliament for Lewes constituency

Up to 100,000 deaths from air pollution